Предприниматель | Информационно-аналитический журнал - Part 10

The European way

In late June, finally Ukraine, represented by the President Poroshenko, signed an association agreement with the EU. The essence of this agreement in the joint integration of the economies of the European Union and Ukraine. What it looks like in practical terms? Simplify any movement of capital, reduced trade barriers, Ukrainian legislation will be “tightened” to European quality standards. That’s nice. But you would not expect from this agreement significant growth of the Ukrainian economy? This question can not respond if you know the meaning of the document was signed on association with the EU. Itself an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU is not a magic wand benefits, and the opening of barriers between the European Union and Ukraine, new opportunities so to speak, take advantage of our business if these opportunities or will continue to look at the easily accessible markets of the CIS and Asia, is an open question.

Calculations that let Ricardo Giucci of the German group of advisors to the Government of Ukraine and Veronika Movchan of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting as follows: after the signing of the framework agreement on association with the EU, the welfare of Ukrainians will grow by 5%. If we continue the integration of the economies and sign extended agreement that welfare will increase by 12%. If Ukraine joined the Customs Union, the welfare of the contrary had fallen by 3.5%. Certainly it is a reason for optimism.

We now turn to the stock market, in this regard gave a comment Christoph Moser ETH in Zurich. The only conclusion which he did: the stock market of the EU and Ukraine as a whole has responded positively. And started to grow shares of Ukrainian companies, which not only work for export to the EU and exporters to the Customs Union. However, the second had a hard time right now, as Russia had began stopping trucks at the border.

If you read the studies of both Ukrainian and European economists can do for yourself the simple conclusion that the association of Ukraine is to win if it is not simply refer to themselves as Europe, but actually act and take its niche in the European Community.

Franchisee Manual

Sorry, this entry is only available in Russian.

(Русский) Рынок евроспецодежды в Украине

Sorry, this entry is only available in Russian.

From the Internet at home: a review of the freight market

Ukrainian market of online trading over the last few years demonstrates stable growth. Even in 2014, when economic instability negatively affects sales tabloid stores, the Internet market continues to gain momentum. Moreover, the online market is quick to respond to emerging needs of consumers. So, recently became popular to use online shops offering uniforms, ammunition, edged weapons, as well as embroidery and traditional costumes, the trend is clear for all reasons.

Such rapid development of the Internet market, will certainly attract the attention of companies operating in adjacent markets. Nothing surprising in the fact that for the right to serve online shopping started to fight shuttle cargo shippers. Some operators express delivery market is to online shopping accounts for more than half of the increase turnover. However, managed to gain a foothold in the segment is not everything.

But assessing the effectiveness of specific carriers with online trading is not so simple. To do this, at least, must be rated online stores to understand the scope of work of a particular seller. But these ratings can at least claim to objectivity, now simply does not exist. Also today there is no more or less adequate segmentation of the market. To exit from the situation and the fact that the market works on the Internet, as a starting point for analysis were taken rankings, compiled on the basis of site visits shops. In particular, popular ranking bigmir.net.

However, it is not all so simple. For example, under the heading “Online Stores” often leading positions are occupied not the shops, portals and directories that do not sell products, but only provide an overview of products. Also in this category rankings often ignore some popular auto parts stores (they are included in another category rating bigmir.net «Auto / Moto”). Many of the sites do not work with freight forwarders, preferring to deliver goods to customers. There are those who do not favor a particular operator express delivery, giving the consumer the right to choose the most. For example, the Odessa store «Volta bikes» ready to work with any suppliers, as well as to deliver the goods or shuttle transfer conductors / Railway if it is the will of the client.

To analyze the performance of carriers with Internet segment, we took the top 250 ranking bigmir.net, ruled out those companies who are undecided in choosing a freight forwarder or give the choice to the customer. Then added stores, included in other headings of this rating (in particular, the “Auto / Moto”), suitable in terms of attendance of their sites. The result was about a hundred online-points, which from mid-May to mid-June had coverage of the entire Ukrainian Internet audience at 0.01-0.1%.

It turned out that most of the popular virtual stores have very real off-line platform: warehouse or commercial enterprises. Delivery of the city their home stores usually carry their own. The same situation in those localities where there are representative online store (a rare but some online stores are opening point in 2-3 cities). Delivery to the regions they give the major players in the outsourcing market freight route, giving customers a choice of 3-4 options. Leading position is occupied “Autolux”, “In-Time” and “New Mail”. To a “second tier” carriers in popularity of online shopping include “Gunsel”, “Delayveri”, “Night Express” and “SAT”.

However, in the context of commodity categories situation varies. For example, the overall picture is exactly the same situation in the largest sector of online commerce – selling machinery, equipment, electronics, and modern gadgets. Here Twenty most popular among Internet users prefer stores to deliver products in the regions by the above companies. Most offers plenty of choices, sometimes focusing on a particular carrier. So, Donetsk shop “Computer technology” is ready to deliver the goods in six different companies, but specifies that the transport company “New Mail” as possible “cash on delivery”. Many stores offer no more than 2-3 options. So novomoskovskiy “Tehnovek” offers clients to take advantage of the “New Mail” or “In-Time”. The same situation is in stores “VTshop», «NextGame». There are those who are loyal to one carrier. And here, again, leading listed companies. For example, an online retailer of electronics «protoria» works only with the “New Mail”; «Gefest» – only with “In-Time”.

But in the popular segment “Everything for the car” the situation is ambiguous. It clearly can be divided into sub-categories “auto parts” and “tires / wheels.” In the last very strong companies like “Autolux”, “In-Time”, “New Mail”, “SAT”. And this is understandable. The fact that these carriers before the boom of online trading had good contacts with suppliers of these products. In particular, for the carriage wheels and tires they provide a separate preferential tariff system. Not surprisingly, having started selling goods over the Internet, manufacturers and dealers expressed a preference for the already established partners. In the subcategory “auto parts in general,” the choice of transport companies are much more extensive. You can also take advantage of services and “Delayveri” and “Express MIST”, “Night Express”, and even the delivery of “Ukrposhta”.

Incidentally, the state monopoly position very strong in the segment of “Goods for tourism, recreation and leisure.” This category structure is very difficult, as there are many seasonal items: bicycles and components, products for fishing, camping equipment, and more. But in the warm season on them for more than 10% of the total supply of online shopping. Besides “Ukrpochty” products in this category carry the “New Mail”, “In-Time”, “Autolux”, “Gunsel”, “Your time”, “Night Express” (listed in descending order of popularity among online merchants in this category). There is, however, interesting combinations. So, Kharkov shop “VELOstil” agree to work with “Ukrpochtoy” only if the destination no representation other carriers working with the company. Their colleagues from Kiev «veliki.com.ua» deliver the goods using the “New Mail” and “Delayveri”, specifying that the buyer can choose another company, but then obliged to pay 50% of the transportation cost.

In the product categories that are endowed with less user attention, according to rating bigmir.net, the situation is similar, but some features may be noted. So many shops offering clothes, prefer to use the services of “Ukrpochty” (as historically more during the heyday of “cataloging” trade). Sellers of furniture very rarely give in logistics outsourcing, as they often requires not only items directly delivery, but also skilled care when assembling the finished product directly to the customer’s premises. Shops specializing in garden tools, seeds and seedlings, work with “In-Time” and “New Mail”. Merchants Embroideries chosen “Autolux” supplies delivered using “MIST Express.”

However, it only trends. The market is growing, structured, changing. Take at least the following fact: recently online trade mainly based in the capital. Today, in the first hundred many popular shopping outlets, representing Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye. With increasing their positions can predict increasing the share of carriers whose positions are strongest in those regions. However, the situation on the eastern region is ambiguous – both in terms of online commerce, and as a whole in relation to socio-economic development in connection with the ongoing political processes. Therefore, we will observe the development of the market and report on trends and developments.

cite data analysis:

Structure of online stores that are included in the review, by product categories

Appliances and electronics – 37%

Parts – 14%

Leisure Products – 13%

Clothing, shoes, accessories – 10%

Home – 8%

Babies – 5%

Other – 13%

Online trading market structure in terms of regions based TT

Kiev – 85%

Other regions – 15%

Market Structure online trade by region-based CT (excluding Kyiv)

Odessa – 15%

Kharkiv – 12%

Dnepropetrovsk – 11%

Donetsk – 9%

Kherson – 6%

Lugansk – 5%

Zaporozhye – 5%

Cherkasy – 4%

Lviv – 3%

Ternopil – 3%

Other – 27%

When cheaper petrol in Ukraine?

It’s been a month after the promised gas station owners drop in gasoline prices , but nothing has changed . Price 95th ranged from 14.5 to 15.5 per liter, while the dollar passed UAH 1.5 compared with April . When cheaper petrol? Wonder motorists. This question should be answered by the AMC ( Antimonopoly Committee ) which shall monitor the economic soundness of strategic products, including gasoline , but was limited until the antimonopoly committee recommendations that gasoline prices should be reduced by at least 1 c. However, the owners of gas stations their arguments , in which they give figures in 18 UAH per 1 liter of 95-octane , and say ” you should be grateful that not 18″.

Continue this dispute had until April 29 , before that date , oil traders obyazyany send economic justification for the price of gasoline . AMC threatened investigations and penalties , but these are only words , each motorist loses its budget at least 200-300 USD per month.

There is a single hope for a dollar decline to 10-11 USD, while petrol should be cheaper by at least Rs 1.5-2. Depreciation may contribute to IMF tranche which came in early May . However, whether it will contribute to a drop in gasoline prices is still very controversial issue.

Tigipko trying to lead the Party of Regions

Secret silence on the sidelines of the recently most influential Party of Regions plays it clearly is not good . As a result of this silent pause began to spread rumors that Mr. Akhmetov tacitly supports the annexation and ready to surrender Donetsk occupiers , with all this in no way denied these rumors , on the contrary continued silence.

The last official statement from the Party of Regions is done immediately after the escape Yanukovych , head of Regions faction in the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Efremovym who condemned the escape and Yanukovych himself . More official statements was not only heard some ” make speeches ” individual members who go to the section with each other, but these statements can not be considered in the context of official position , just as a personal opinion. What plan of the leadership ? Why the once monolithic party can not have its say in the southeast ? One of the reason for the silence is balancing rhetoric in order not to lose the electorate , which is also split .

According to unofficial information the party leadership took over the once close and old friend Vladimir Rybak Yanukovych , but unofficial reports no instructions on how to behave and what to do , does not come from him . Now comes backstage struggle for leadership in the Party of Regions places . The question is , who actually replace Yanukovych as leader of the party .

First who forestalls – Tihipko. He , without the approval of the party has already filed his candidacy for president as a self-promoted , and now all in the open statement calls on party members to reform and to support his candidacy party leader . Most likely at the adjourned Congress Party of Regions , which will be held on March 29 as a result of inner- party struggle regions may rise or go down in history.

Putin is lying

Vladimir Putin at a regular press conference held in the form of a “conversation”, looked like a very experienced in their own circus juggler, so he deftly juggled facts, substituting the concept that if you do not know the truth or do not read Ukrainian media, you begin to believe him. It is moderately quite correct doses and very constructive things (with regards to political issues) with a total lie and absurd (with regards to the situation in Ukraine), but of course, when for months sow bridgehead of lies, it is so boring that you start to believe the lie.

Putin has realized his mistake and began to slowly process its own justification, but did not retreat. This indicates operational convening of the UN mission in New York on March 3, where authorized by the Russian Federation Mr. Churkin tried to legalize the invasion of Ukraine by reading order Yanukovych, who asks to enter the Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. In the current situation Yanukovych will sign anything if only he saved lives and a warm place until the end of life. Frankly pathetic attempt, it did not buy even a neutral, China, which usually remains neutral, Russia also condemned Turkey, which is a partner of Russia.

Unsuccessful attempt to convince the world community in its pseudo- righteous spurred Putin at a press conference where visible overt steps to elementary save face. Reply did not work adequately even frank spittle businessman and newly governor of Dnepropetrovsk, which without emotion called Putin “schizophrenic in less.”Putin lie visible to everybody, Ukrainians world Russians. We enclose some excerpts from a speech where he Putin openly disingenuous.

Self-defense Maidan trained in the West

“As you know, they were trained at bases in Lithuania and Poland. They are professionals , almost like a riot.”

Crimea now in danger

“Crimea , Kyiv want to put the script there and start a series of bombings and chaos. Course, this is very concerned about the Crimean “.

People in the form of unmarked in Crimea – Crimean this self-defense

“Look at the post-Soviet space , full of forms , similar to Russian. Going to the store and buy. No, it forces local self-defense.”

Crimean residents on their own disarmed Ukrainian military

“Self-defense committees took control of all the Armed Forces of Ukraine… It’s some fortified ! Several dozen S-300 , dozens Beech , 22,000 soldiers. All without firing a shot passed into the hands of the people of the Crimea.”

Torment fighters Special Forces “Berkut”

“They not only do not cure – not even fed in hospitals.”

Maydanovtsy shot into themselves

“There is an opinion , even among the opposition that snipers were from one of the opposition parties. You read. These data are in the public domain.”

In Crimea going to go Western Adventure

“We have seen that in the Crimea tightened boevichki of nationalist organizations.”

The protesters in eastern Ukraine, Russia has no relation

“Such support Russia for me came as a surprise. These are people who live in the eastern part , they were beyond the threshold of decision making.”

Dnepropetrovsk not want to see Kolomoyskogo as governor

“Elementary rascal , a few years ago our oligarch Abramovich threw. Such rogue governor do – of course, people are unhappy.”

Ukraine and Russia brothers forever

“Ukraine – our nearest neighbor , fraternal republic. Our armed forces – it’s comrades in arms , friends. Ukrainian and Russian soldiers – on the same side. This is happening now in the Crimea.”

Current Ukraine completely different state than it was then , with this state we have not signed anything

“If this is a revolution , then in this area , a new state. And with this country we have not signed binding documents.”

In Crimea legitimate Prime

“You follow all procedures , there are no violations.”

Revolution There was no

“It’s all very well prepared. Western instructors have tried.”

We do not recognize the president, if he is not pleasing to us

“There is a danger that some will pop natsionalyuga an anti-Semite , a person with extreme views.”

Objectionable Russian government does not get a discount on gas

“This is purely a commercial component of Gazprom’s activities.”

Because Western aid to Ukraine , it will not get a new loan

“Our Western partners have asked us not to do.”

Tanks on the border due to the exercise

“Our doctrine is not related to the events in Ukraine.”

Yanukovych our people

“His fate we participated humanitarian considerations – it could kill.”

Crimea – Russian territory

“The question of the annexation of Crimea to Russia is not considered… In no case will not warm up such sentiments.”

Collapse of stock markets is not related to the conflict in Crimea

“There was a nervousness in the markets until the situation in Ukraine related to the U.S. Federal Reserve policy. They have taken action to increase the attractiveness of investment in the United States. Investors began to withdraw funds from emerging markets suffered most… India, in my opinion, and the other BRICS countries. Russia – too. Slightly smaller than, say , in India, but also. this is the fundamental reason. ”

No violations in the Crimea

“Our actions are fully consistent with international law , as we have a legitimate president of circulation , which coincides with our interests.”

Russian peacekeepers

“If I decide to use the army – it is legitimate… This is consistent with our national interests – to protect people. This is a humanitarian mission.”

The Russian stock market crashed

As a result of the military conflict in Ukraine and negative background , one day Russian business lost 2 trillion rubles.

This is evidenced by trading on the Russian stock and commodity markets. Index Russian RTS stock exchange by 10.5%.

For the stock market followed the Russian ruble, which fell by almost 10%.

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As Russian troops entered multiply fears that energy supplies and agricultural . production may be disrupted , prices serevye prices rose to the highest level in the last 6 months.

If Russia will continue in the same spirit of its military conflict , have literally “rusk”.

What will happen to the Ukrainian currency?

The current situation with the national currency result of the protracted political crisis. National Bank of Ukraine will save the state stabilization fund and does not go with interventions on the financial market. Population of course also throws wood into the fire, taking deposits from banks, deposits and transferring cash in the currency. National Bank has no choice as to come up with interventions and to lower the rate to 10, and honestly say while he holds, though whether long Hryvnia can keep busy abroad, is an open question.

What the experts say

Eric Naiman, managing partner at Capital Times

The prospect of a few days – to keep the hryvnia at the current level, if Ukraine manages to solve the political crisis, the exchange rate against the dollar will 8,80-9,10.

What’s next, a very interesting question. Economic problems hanging over Ukraine as a sword of Damocles. Again, there will be able to solve political problems, will continue to lend to Russia or Ukraine will have to go to the IMF for help ? A lot of open questions.

Looking ahead a few months, the hryvnia resist the deep devaluation.

Anna Bodrov, a senior analyst at Alpari

All panic now looks like a competition where each bank is trying to raise the bar higher. Therefore, the course is growing. NBU has noticed these games and started the settlement issue. In the future, a few weeks the U.S. dollar will cost UAH 9.5-10, if we take the perspective of half a year – 10.3.

The main factors course

One of the most important factors that determines the value of the currency in the long term, is to attract foreign loans. It is now clear what to expect help from Russia can not. The Prime Minister announced the possibility Yatsenuk all the conditions of the IMF, in order to get the next $ 15 billion. Financial assistance and promise to the EU and U.S..

Without financial assistance to the National Bank will be difficult to maintain the exchange rate for a long time, it is necessary to enter the market and intervene by foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank, and these reserves are running out.

If financial assistance is received, there is a very high probability that it is still going to happen, currency fall down again.

Russian-Ukrainian conflict: Causes and Consequences

Dear citizens ! Usually our editorial writes about the political life of the country, because we sincerely believe that the present policy and not corrupt business two bipolar components, but you can not think about the economy, the political situation in the country is appalling. Now the information field of the country very oversaturated, and understand who stood for what is very difficult, so we decided to explain some of the processes of government and express their views, uncut, what is happening in the country and abroad.
Why

Began Maidan?

We previously wrote about the error that made Mr. Azarov , preparing an association agreement, but in the end nothing else as ” throwing ” people and their expectations in their rhetoric turned 180 degrees to Russia. He did it as a result of twisted nuts from Russia and Mr Putin’s uncontested petition. Of course, now we understand that for Gingerbread promised at that meeting Putin Yanukovych before the historic decision on the failure to sign the association with the EU in November, this carrot steel gas prices drop to $ 268.5 per thousand cubic meters and $ 15 billion loan to Ukraine. Yanukovych had no choice, because the nose elections, and the treasury is empty, robbed her or not effectively used, it must decide the competent authorities, but the fact remains, the solution is not formed Yanukovych in Ukraine.

We return to the protests. These decisions are a cause for peaceful protests that were definitely into the hands of the then opposition in the face of ” famous three”. However, unlike Yanukovich, the opposition is almost always seen and heard protests. Recall “tax maidan ” in Tymoshenko as a result of which almost all were canceled contradictory norms Denisova ( and including ERU ), and remember the “tax maidan ” under Yanukovych, where the nuts are so twisted that people were happy, and it just would not tighten the screws (ERU remained in force ). In the end, Yanukovych decided to accelerate and strangle already dying Maidan ( Independence to remind then remained only students ). The next day to see pictures have already spread all over the world, and the reaction of the West has not found himself waiting Yanukovich received is directly proportional to the fact that planned to get even bigger headache in the form of protests and weekly Chamber. Certainly provocations were as one and on the other hand, is an integral part of any protests, but to the contrary, to put out a protest, to compromise, the power to protect their hires controversial decisions in the face of the criminal element of the so-called ” titushek ” Berkut relocate from all areas, furthermore gives weapon ” titushkam “, and with the acquiescence of exports allows people in the forest and to intimidate and eliminate particularly active, which in itself is a direct provocation. After these events, the men of the Right sector clearly decided to equip activists in response to aggression by the police and the criminal element. Rocked the cradle, as a result of about 100 dead, nearly 300 have disappeared. Who is to blame, Golden Eagle ? Right quadrant ? Certainly not, Berkut obeys orders, yes, it has inadequate personality, people without morals, but they are in the right sector, the ratio of bad guys than its quantity. Blame Yanukovych, who fired just not Azarov, not a difficult decision, not when the people heard, and tighten the screws with the tacit consent of the Minister of Interior allowed to shoot people who armed only answer.

Why all this Russia ?

Ukraine even economically and politically weakened plays a very important geopolitical role in the Eurasian continent, the impact of which is lost in the case of European integration processes, furthermore automatically lost leverage and pressure on it that is not included in the plan of recreating the great Russian empire. Prosperity neighbor in political and economic terms is not profitable, the Russians too are closely watching the Ukraine and if they see that there is a democracy, freedom of speech, prosperity, it’s sure to spur the massive unrest in Russia, which has already happened more than once. This theory is supported by recent attempts to drag Ukraine into the Customs Union, which does not want to go even pro-Russian Party of Regions. Yanukovych has canceled the European integration, because of the forthcoming presidential elections, and he needed the money to ” throw a bone” to the electorate, as the Hanged pensions and other social services. standards for these purposes have been allocated $ 15 billion the government.

Crimea

Let’s return to action in the Ukraine. All that is happening now in the Crimea professionally planned somewhere in the Lubyanka. It is very noticeable on handwriting past events.

One has only to look at the course of action in the Crimea from the Russian Federation, as not even the most politicized citizen will appreciate that about any self-defense, to protect the Russian parliament and in the Crimea, which they say pro-Russian Crimean parliament is not the question. Just for one day ( 28.02.2014 ) was made unauthorized mass action on the part of the Russian Federation:

  1. Enter heavily armed men unmarked in the Crimean parliament.
  2. Capture Simferopol airport Bel’bek.
  3. Allocation of funds and the organization of meetings pro-Russian citizens.
  4. Creating checkpoints in Jankoi at the entrance to the Crimea and elsewhere.
  5. Block Balaklava bay missile boats of the Russian Navy. Blocking protection and patrol the coast of the Ukrainian Navy.
  6. redeployment of troops from Russia in the form of 10 vertolelov MI-2 with naval infantry on board.

The next day 01.03.2014 organized rallies held in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolayiv. People allegedly Ukrainian citizens (although there are clear facts that 90 % of Russia is on tour with obvious Russian accent) come with flags of Russia and shout about joining Russia.

Of course the main purpose of this scenario – to provoke military response to these cheeky provocation to photograph this image, ” how much hurt Bandera Russian population in Crimea” and justify the introduction of the occupation troops and the Crimean peninsula. The most important thing for Ukrainian officials and citizens – to remain calm and not to play the script written in the Kremlin, and then very soon, Russia will have to explain what makes her troops on the territory of a sovereign and independent state of Ukraine.

PS: And take and sign this association Yanukovych all could have been avoided, but as they say “have what we have”.