The current situation with the national currency result of the protracted political crisis. National Bank of Ukraine will save the state stabilization fund and does not go with interventions on the financial market. Population of course also throws wood into the fire, taking deposits from banks, deposits and transferring cash in the currency. National Bank has no choice as to come up with interventions and to lower the rate to 10, and honestly say while he holds, though whether long Hryvnia can keep busy abroad, is an open question.

What the experts say

Eric Naiman, managing partner at Capital Times

The prospect of a few days – to keep the hryvnia at the current level, if Ukraine manages to solve the political crisis, the exchange rate against the dollar will 8,80-9,10.

What’s next, a very interesting question. Economic problems hanging over Ukraine as a sword of Damocles. Again, there will be able to solve political problems, will continue to lend to Russia or Ukraine will have to go to the IMF for help ? A lot of open questions.

Looking ahead a few months, the hryvnia resist the deep devaluation.

Anna Bodrov, a senior analyst at Alpari

All panic now looks like a competition where each bank is trying to raise the bar higher. Therefore, the course is growing. NBU has noticed these games and started the settlement issue. In the future, a few weeks the U.S. dollar will cost UAH 9.5-10, if we take the perspective of half a year – 10.3.

The main factors course

One of the most important factors that determines the value of the currency in the long term, is to attract foreign loans. It is now clear what to expect help from Russia can not. The Prime Minister announced the possibility Yatsenuk all the conditions of the IMF, in order to get the next $ 15 billion. Financial assistance and promise to the EU and U.S..

Without financial assistance to the National Bank will be difficult to maintain the exchange rate for a long time, it is necessary to enter the market and intervene by foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank, and these reserves are running out.

If financial assistance is received, there is a very high probability that it is still going to happen, currency fall down again.